Asian middle distillates are likely to extend their bullish momentum into the Nov. 1-5 trading week as limited exports from Northeast Asia and recovering demand continue to boost sentiment for gasoil and jet fuel/kerosene.
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Register NowAt 10 am Singapore time (0200 GMT), the ICE January Brent crude oil futures contract stood at $83.78/b, down 60 cents/b (0.71%) from $84.38/b at the Oct. 29 Asian close.
Jet fuel/kerosene
** Brokers pegged balance month November-December jet fuel/kerosene time spread at plus 50 cents/b at 0200 GMT Nov. 1, steady from the 0830 GMT Asian close Oct. 29, Platts data showed.
** The FOB Singapore jet fuel/kerosene cash differential was assessed at plus 25 cents/b to the Mean of Platts Singapore jet fuel/kerosene assessments Oct. 29, up 17 cents/b from the start of the week, Platts data showed.
** Industry participants are optimistic about the near-term demand outlook amid an increase in vaccinated travel lane arrangements and the easing of other pandemic restrictions as countries shift away from COVID-19 elimination policies.
** Asia-Pacific airlines carried 1.2 million international passengers in September, down from 1.4 million in August, and representing just 4.1% of the 30 million passengers flown in September 2019, latest data from the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines showed. Asia-Pacific airlines flew 11.19 million passengers over January-September, down 83.2% year on year. Yet, there were encouraging signs of an increase in ticket bookings in markets where restrictions have eased, the AAPA said.
** Regional supply of jet fuel/kerosene is expected to tighten, with the recovery in aviation fuel demand coinciding with tightening supplies of jet fuel/kerosene as countries, including Japan and South Korea, stock up for the peak winter heating season, sources said.
** The Q1-Q2 2022 jet fuel/kerosene swap spread, an indication of near-term sentiment, averaged plus $2.30/b over Oct. 25-29, up from plus $2.26/b the week before.
Gasoil
** Brokers pegged balance month November-December gasoil market structure at plus $1.05/b at 0200 GMT Nov. 1, up from plus $1.02/b at the 0830 GMT Asian close Oct. 29.
** The November Exchange of Futures for Swaps spread was pegged at minus $15.68/mt at 0200 GMT Nov. 1, widening from minus $15.64/mt at the Oct. 29 Asian close, Platts data showed.
** Asian gasoil prices have been shored up by improving regional and western demand even as supply balances had been trimmed. Traders said Asia continues to see supply tightness for the benchmark 10 ppm sulfur gasoil grade, with the situation further exacerbated by lower resupply inflows from India and the Persian Gulf due to favorable arbitrage economics to send barrels West.
** Singapore's middle distillate stocks rebounded 9.95% in the week of Oct. 21-27, recovering from a six-week low. Commercial stockpiles rose 976,000 barrels week on week to 10.79 million barrels, the latest Enterprise Singapore data showed. Stocks tumbled to 9.81 million barrels.
** The city-state retained its position as a net gasoil exporter in the week ended Oct. 27, with outflows outpacing imports by more than three times. The bulk of exports went to Malaysia at 90,686 mt, followed by Hong Kong and Australia at 40,066 mt and 39,462 mt, respectively, the Enterprise Singapore data showed.
** The Q1-Q2 2022 gasoil swap spread averaged plus $2.35/b over Oct. 25-29, up from plus $2.19/b the week before.
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November 01, 2021 at 09:40AM
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Asia middle distillates: Key market indicators for Nov 1-5 - S&P Global
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