5. Managing with Mullens
When teams see an opponent that's forced to play their backup quarterback because their starter is injured they believe there will be a drop off in performance at the most important position. With 49ers starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo sidelined for almost half of the 49ers' games by a high ankle sprain, Nick Mullens has produced in comparable fashion to the man ahead of him on the depth chart.
Mullens will start again on Monday night and much like Garoppolo, is completing just over 67 percent of his passes. He's averaging almost eight yards an attempt much like the 49ers starter. And Mullens has six touchdown passes to Garoppolo's seven. The two QBs have even sacked close to the same number of times (Mullens – 13, Garoppolo – 11).
One area where Mullens has been decidedly better than Garoppolo has been in the fourth quarter. Mullens ranks a respectable 12th in the league in fourth quarter passer rating with a mark of 104.8. He's completed more than 71 percent of his passes in the final quarter of games this season. He's averaging almost nine yards per attempt and has four touchdowns against a pair of interceptions.
Where Mullens has struggled a bit however, is on third down. His completion percentage on third down (60%) is 10 percent lower than his overall percentage and he is even on touchdowns (3) and interceptions (3) for a pedestrian passer rating of 76.
San Francisco analyst and former DB Eric Davis believes those struggles are rooted in Mullens limitations as a passer.
"(Mullens) makes it very difficult to call a game if you're Kyle Shanahan," said Davis in an appearance on 'One Bills Live.' "It would have been impossible for Nick Mullens to have a good day against any secondary. Their passing game is played within an 18-yard bubble. And I'm not worried about him throwing beyond that 18-yard bubble because his arm isn't strong enough. This is not a Patrick Mahomes arm where I have to worry about chasing down a ball 70 yards in the air. He can't throw it far enough where an NFL DB can't catch up to it. So every opposing defense is playing everything downhill."
The struggles to convert on third down with Mullens have been especially troubling of late. In his five starts, the 49ers have converted just over 41 percent of their third downs, which is a decent success rate. But in their last two games, the San Francisco offense has managed to convert just six of their last 24 third down opportunities for just a 25 percent success rate.
Davis thinks with Deebo Samuel back and running the jet sweep motions, combined with the return of RB Raheem Mostert should support Mullens, but he doesn't seeing dramatically changing the complexion of the 49ers pass game.
"Raheem Mostert's return should help create some space in the passing game for Mullens, because his speed to the edge forces defenses to move immediately as a second level defender," Davis said. "But we all know that he doesn't have the arm that's going to push the ball down the field. So it'll continue to be difficult."
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