Coronavirus cases in India crossed the 30,000-mark on Wednesday, April 29. As of April 30 afternoon, it reported a total of 33,610 cases and 1,075 deaths. This number is the 16th highest in the world and 4th highest in Asia.
The Covid-19 pandemic had broken out in China’s Wuhan in late December, 2019. India Today Data Intelligence Unit (DIU) analyses how India, which is in close proximity to China, fares among Asian countries in dealing with the outbreak.
The comparison was done on four parameters speed of rise in cases, speed of rise in deaths, recovery rate and test positivity rate.
Speed of rise in cases
There are 12 countries in Asia where the number of coronavirus cases is above 10,000. At more than 33,000 cases, India comes fourth after Turkey, Iran and China.
When the speed at which cases doubled in the last one week was compared, India stands at fifth position. In the last one week, it took 11.4 days in India for coronavirus cases to double.
In Qatar, cases doubled in 8 days, which is the fastest among the 12 countries; in Saudi Arabia, it took 8.6 days. Cases doubled in 9 days in Singapore, which is facing a second wave of coronavirus infections after successfully dealing with the pandemic in late March.
In South Korea, one of the first countries to contain the virus sans draconian lockdown measures, cases are taking almost 646 days or close to two years to double. China, the origin of the virus, contained the pandemic in early April. It will take almost 10 years for cases to double in China.
Test positivity rate
India, according to Worldometer data, has conducted roughly 7.7 lakh tests the third highest number in Asia after UAE (11.2 lakh) and Turkey (9.48 lakh).
Owing to India’s large population, the number deflates when scaled to per million. India currently has clusters of Covid-19 cases, and thanks to an early and strictly imposed lockdown, it hasn’t reached the community spread stage. Also, India is following a testing strategy to control the situation.
DIU scanned the test positivity rate (in percentage) for Asian countries having more than 1,000 cases and found varying results. Test positivity rate (TPR) is defined as the ratio of positive cases to the number of tests conducted.
Even with low per million testing, India had 4 per cent TPR. Of the 26 Asian countries with over 1,000 cases, India’s TPR stands at number 12. Three countries Hong Kong (0.7), Uzbekistan (0.8) and UAE (0.95) had less than 1 per cent TPR.
Cross sectional data analysis also shows that aggressive testing doesn’t necessarily result in high TPR. For instance, testing per million in UAE is 1.1 lakh and TPR is 0.95 per cent. In Qatar, testing per million is 30,000, but TPR is 13.45 per cent.
Same is the case in low testing countries. India has tested 559 people per million with a 4 per cent TPR, whereas Indonesia, with 291 tests per million (almost half of India), has a TPR twice of India.
DIU could not establish a correlation between testing and positivity rate. The coefficient of correlation turned out to be -0.3, which shows a weak correlation between testing per million and positivity rate.
Speed of rise in deaths
India’s death toll of 1,075 is the fourth highest in Asia after Iran (5,877), China (4,633) and Turkey (2,992). Among the countries with over 10,000 cases, Qatar, Singapore and UAE have below 100 deaths as of April 30 morning.
The speed at which deaths doubled in India is the third highest in Asia, along with Japan. In the UAE, deaths doubled every 6.6 days, followed by Pakistan (8.3). In India and Japan, deaths doubled in 10.6 days. Incidentally, Japan, which for the longest time had resisted a lockdown, is now witnessing a spike in Covid-19 deaths.
Here too, China and South Korea have an edge over other Asian countries. At their respective speeds, it will take 144 days in South Korea to double the number of deaths and almost 53 years in China (19,283 days).
Recovery percentage
Out of the 12 countries with more than 10,000 cases, only four have seen more than 50 per cent recoveries/discharges. Around 94 per cent of the Chinese patients have recovered, while it is 83 per cent in South Korea, 78 per cent in Iran and 50 per cent in Israel.
With 34 per cent of its patients recovered, Turkey stands at number 5 and India at number 6 with a recovery rate of 25 per cent. Qatar and Singapore have the lowest recovery rates as on April 30 morning 10 per cent and 7 per cent respectively.
DIU also found that countries where the virus struck early, such as China, South Korea, Iran and Israel, have higher recovery rates compared to those which started reporting Covid-19 cases at a later stage.
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May 01, 2020 at 12:31AM
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